U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 7th District
Matthew Robert Van Epps win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Epps by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Matthew Robert Van Epps
Raised $2.3M · $208K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Darden Hunter Copeland
Raised $869K · $79K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Matthew Robert Van Epps. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.0M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Darden Hunter Copeland had raised $869KFEC filing
- Jul 17Matthew Robert Van Epps had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.6 and R+6.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›