U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 8th District
David Kustoff win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Kustoff by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
David Kustoff
Raised $2.2M · $3.0M cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dewey Gordon Bryan
Raised $226K · $350.72 cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to David Kustoff. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $40K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Dewey Gordon Bryan had raised $226KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17David Kustoff had raised $2.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.9 and R+6.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›