U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 3rd District
Keith Alan Self win chance
98%
Typical margin: Self by 16
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Keith Alan Self
Raised $841K · $288K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Evan Hunt
Raised $447K · $44K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Keith Alan Self. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $191K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Keith Alan Self had raised $841KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Evan Hunt had raised $447KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.4 and R+3.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›