U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 4th District
Patrick Fallon win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Fallon by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Patrick Fallon
Raised $791K · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jason Pearce
Raised $16K · $2K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Patrick Fallon. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $4K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jason Pearce had raised $16KFEC filing
- Jun 30Patrick Fallon had raised $791KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›