U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 5th District
Lance Gooden win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Gooden by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Lance Gooden
Raised $1.3M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ruth Torres
Raised $21K · $4K cash on hand · through May 6, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Lance Gooden. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $30K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Lance Gooden had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- May 6Ruth Torres had raised $21KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›