U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 9th District
Alexandra Mealer win chance
59%
Typical margin: Mealer by 2
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Alexandra Mealer
Raised $2.1M · $362K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Terry Virts
Raised $665K · $3K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Alexandra Mealer. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $814K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Terry Virts had raised $665KFEC filing
- Jun 30Alexandra Mealer had raised $2.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+14.0 and D+10.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›