U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 17th District
Pete Sessions win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Sessions by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Pete Sessions
Raised $1.1M · $934K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
James Gordon Mitchell
Raised $19K · $0 cash on hand · through Mar 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Pete Sessions. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $9K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Pete Sessions had raised $1.1MFEC filing
- Mar 31James Gordon Mitchell had raised $19KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›