U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 18th District
Christian Menefee win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Menefee by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Alexander Green
Raised $1.7M · $85K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Christian Menefee
Raised $3.6M · $156K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Allen D Berry
Raised $9K · $-171.29 cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Christian Menefee. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.9M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Allen D Berry had raised $9KFEC filing
- Jun 30Christian Menefee had raised $3.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30Alexander Green had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›