U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 20th District
Joaquin Castro win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Castro by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Joaquin Castro
Raised $515K · $154K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Edgardo Rafael Baez
Raised $49K · $21K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Joaquin Castro. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Edgardo Rafael Baez had raised $49KFEC filing
- Jun 30Joaquin Castro had raised $515KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.0 and D+39.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›