U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 23rd District
Ernest Anthony Tony Gonzales II win chance
71%
Typical margin: Gonzales by 4
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ernest Anthony Tony Gonzales II
Raised $2.3M · $227K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Katy Padilla Stout
Raised $485K · $171K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Ernest Anthony Tony Gonzales II. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.7M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Katy Padilla Stout had raised $485KFEC filing
- Jun 30Ernest Anthony Tony Gonzales II had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+16.3 and D+8.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›