U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 29th District
Sylvia R Garcia win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Garcia by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Sylvia R Garcia
Raised $987K · $201K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Martha Elena Fierro
Raised $0 · $0 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $176K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Martha Elena Fierro had raised $0FEC filing
- Jun 30Sylvia R Garcia had raised $987KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›