U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 30th District
Frederick Haynes III win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Haynes by 24
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Frederick Haynes III
Raised $420K · $120K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Sholdon Daniels
Raised $357K · $-21794.97 cash on hand · through Mar 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Frederick Haynes III. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $195K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Frederick Haynes III had raised $420KFEC filing
- Mar 31Sholdon Daniels had raised $357KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+11.9 and D+36.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›