U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 32nd District
Ryan Binkley win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Binkley by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ryan Binkley
Raised $3.2M · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 2, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dan F. Barrios
Raised $97K · $6K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Ryan Binkley. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3.3M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Sep 2Ryan Binkley had raised $3.2MFEC filing
- Jun 30Dan F. Barrios had raised $97KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.5 and R+5.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›