U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 33rd District
Colin Allred win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Allred by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Marc Allison Veasey
Raised $770K · $575K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Colin Allred
Raised $7.4M · $160K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kurt Schwab
Raised $13K · $870.25 cash on hand · through Feb 11, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Colin Allred. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $410K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Colin Allred had raised $7.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Marc Allison Veasey had raised $770KFEC filing
- Feb 11Kurt Schwab had raised $13KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›