U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 35th District
Johnny Garcia win chance
53%
Typical margin: Garcia by 0.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Carlos De La Cruz Jr.
Raised $1.0M · $272K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Johnny Garcia
Raised $932K · $323K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Carlos De La Cruz Jr.. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $904K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Johnny Garcia had raised $932KFEC filing
- Jun 30Carlos De La Cruz Jr. had raised $1.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+11.7 and D+12.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›