U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 36th District
Brian Babin win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Babin by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Brian Babin
Raised $1.0M · $909K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Doug Rogers
Raised $231K · $0 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Brian Babin. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Doug Rogers had raised $231KFEC filing
- Jun 30Brian Babin had raised $1.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›