U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 37th District
Greg Casar win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Casar by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Lloyd Doggett
Raised $471K · $6.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Greg Casar
Raised $1.2M · $597K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Lauren B. Pena
Raised $130K · $3K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Greg Casar. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $11K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Lauren B. Pena had raised $130KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Greg Casar had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Jun 30Lloyd Doggett had raised $471KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.1 and D+39.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›