U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Texas's 38th District
Jon Bonck win chance
99%
Typical margin: Bonck by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jon Bonck
Raised $1.6M · $89K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Marvalette Hunter
Raised $137K · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Jon Bonck. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.2M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Sep 18Marvalette Hunter had raised $137KFEC filing
- Jun 30Jon Bonck had raised $1.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.1 and R+4.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›