U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Utah's 1st District
Ben McAdams win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McAdams by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ben McAdams
Raised $2.3M · $299K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Riley Montgomery Owen
Raised $133K · $10K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to Ben McAdams. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $705K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Riley Montgomery Owen had raised $133KFEC filing
- Jun 30Ben McAdams had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.3 and D+37.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›