U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Utah's 3rd District
Celeste Maloy win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Maloy by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Celeste Maloy
Raised $1.5M · $322K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kent Udell
Raised $48K · $13K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Celeste Maloy. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $112K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Kent Udell had raised $48KFEC filing
- Jun 30Celeste Maloy had raised $1.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.4 and R+6.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›