U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Utah's 4th District
Mike Kennedy win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Kennedy by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mike Kennedy
Raised $971K · $387K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jonny Larsen
Raised $54K · $1K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Mike Kennedy. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $736K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jonny Larsen had raised $54KFEC filing
- Jun 30Mike Kennedy had raised $971KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›