U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Vermont at-large
Rebecca 'Becca' Balint win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Balint by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Rebecca 'Becca' Balint
Raised $956K · $626K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Gerald Malloy
Raised $58K · $20K cash on hand · through Jul 23, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to Rebecca 'Becca' Balint. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $36K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 23Gerald Malloy had raised $58KFEC filing
- Jul 22Rebecca 'Becca' Balint had raised $956KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.0 and D+39.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›