U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Virginia's 2nd District
Elaine Luria win chance
61%
Typical margin: Luria by 2
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jennifer Kiggans
Raised $6.0M · $3.4M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Elaine Luria
Raised $4.7M · $3.6M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Jennifer Kiggans. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $413K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jul 15Elaine Luria had raised $4.7MFEC filing
- Jul 15Jennifer Kiggans had raised $6.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+10.1 and D+14.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›