U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Virginia's 5th District
John J. McGuire III win chance
57%
Typical margin: McGuire by 1
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Thomas Perriello
Raised $2.1M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John J. McGuire III
Raised $1.8M · $524K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Thomas Perriello. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $533K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jul 15John J. McGuire III had raised $1.8MFEC filing
- Jul 15Thomas Perriello had raised $2.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+13.4 and D+11.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›