U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Virginia's 6th District
Benjamin Lee Cline win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Cline by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Benjamin Lee Cline
Raised $1.4M · $711K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Beth Macy
Raised $1.7M · $847K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Beth Macy. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $180K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Beth Macy had raised $1.7MFEC filing
- Jul 15Benjamin Lee Cline had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.9 and R+5.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›