U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Virginia's 7th District
Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman win chance
96%
Typical margin: Vindman by 13
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman
Raised $12.4M · $6.6M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Tara Anne Durant
Raised $392K · $102K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.4M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman had raised $12.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Tara Anne Durant had raised $392KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+0.8 and D+25.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›