U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Virginia's 8th District
Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Beyer by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr.
Raised $2.1M · $839K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Tony Sabio
Raised $22K · $18K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr.. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $430K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Tony Sabio had raised $22KFEC filing
- Jul 15Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. had raised $2.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›