U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Virginia's 9th District
H Morgan Griffith win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Griffith by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
H Morgan Griffith
Raised $1.8M · $974K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Joy Powers
Raised $85K · $14K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to H Morgan Griffith. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $59K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Joy Powers had raised $85KFEC filing
- Jul 15H Morgan Griffith had raised $1.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.1 and R+6.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›