U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 2nd District
Rick Larsen win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Larsen by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Rick Larsen
Raised $2.0M · $652K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Raymond Pelletti
Raised $2K · $2K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Rick Larsen. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $10K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Rick Larsen had raised $2.0MFEC filing
- Jun 30Raymond Pelletti had raised $2KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›