U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 3rd District
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez win chance
82%
Typical margin: Perez by 6.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Raised $6.3M · $2.1M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John Braun
Raised $2.2M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Aug 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $315K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Aug 18John Braun had raised $2.2MFEC filing
- Jul 15Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had raised $6.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+5.5 and D+18.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›