U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 4th District
Amanda McKinney win chance
99%
Typical margin: McKinney by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Amanda McKinney
Raised $982K · $215K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John Duresky
Raised $179K · $34K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Amanda McKinney. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $605K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15John Duresky had raised $179KFEC filing
- Jul 15Amanda McKinney had raised $982KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.0 and R+4.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›