U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 5th District
Michael James Baumgartner win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Baumgartner by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Michael James Baumgartner
Raised $1.7M · $954K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Carmela Conroy
Raised $396K · $74K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Michael James Baumgartner. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $524K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Carmela Conroy had raised $396KFEC filing
- Jul 15Michael James Baumgartner had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.5 and R+6.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›