U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 7th District
Pramila Jayapal win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Jayapal by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Pramila Jayapal
Raised $2.5M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nirav Sheth
Raised $12K · $5K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Pramila Jayapal. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Nirav Sheth had raised $12KFEC filing
- Jul 15Pramila Jayapal had raised $2.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›