U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 8th District
Kim Schrier win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Schrier by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Kim Schrier
Raised $3.0M · $3.5M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Trinh Ha
Raised $167K · $28K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Kim Schrier. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $127K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Trinh Ha had raised $167KFEC filing
- Jul 15Kim Schrier had raised $3.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.0 and D+39.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›