U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Washington's 9th District
D. Adam Smith win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Smith by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
D. Adam Smith
Raised $1.9M · $870K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kshama Sawant
Raised $649K · $31K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Douglas Michael Basler
Raised $12K · $5K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to D. Adam Smith. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $30K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Douglas Michael Basler had raised $12KFEC filing
- Jul 15Kshama Sawant had raised $649KFEC filing
- Jul 15D. Adam Smith had raised $1.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›