U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
West Virginia's 1st District
Carol Devine Miller win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Miller by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Carol Devine Miller
Raised $1.7M · $604K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Vincent Raymond George
Raised $258K · $258K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Carol Devine Miller. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.5M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Vincent Raymond George had raised $258KFEC filing
- Jun 30Carol Devine Miller had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.9 and R+6.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›