U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
West Virginia's 2nd District
Riley Moore win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Moore by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Riley Moore
Raised $1.3M · $751K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ahsan Parsi
Raised $134K · $44K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Riley Moore. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $22K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Ahsan Parsi had raised $134KFEC filing
- Jun 30Riley Moore had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.9 and R+6.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›