U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 1st District
Bryan George Steil win chance
61%
Typical margin: Steil by 2
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Bryan George Steil
Raised $5.5M · $6.3M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mitchell Berman
Raised $713K · $152K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Bryan George Steil. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $57K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Mitchell Berman had raised $713KFEC filing
- Jul 22Bryan George Steil had raised $5.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+14.4 and D+10.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›