U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 2nd District
Mark Pocan win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Pocan by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mark Pocan
Raised $815K · $884K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Erik Olsen
Raised $3K · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 12, 2025 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Mark Pocan. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Mark Pocan had raised $815KFEC filing
- Sep 12Erik Olsen had raised $3KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›