U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 3rd District
Rebecca Cooke win chance
62%
Typical margin: Cooke by 2.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Derrick F. Van Orden
Raised $7.5M · $4.7M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rebecca Cooke
Raised $8.6M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Rebecca Cooke. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $729K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jul 22Rebecca Cooke had raised $8.6MFEC filing
- Jul 22Derrick F. Van Orden had raised $7.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+9.9 and D+14.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›