U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 4th District
Gwen S Moore win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Moore by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Gwen S Moore
Raised $1.1M · $29K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Purnima Nath
Raised $2K · $5K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Gwen S Moore. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $18K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Purnima Nath had raised $2KFEC filing
- Jul 22Gwen S Moore had raised $1.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›