U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 5th District
Scott Fitzgerald win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Fitzgerald by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Scott Fitzgerald
Raised $1.4M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Andrew Beck
Raised $15K · $3K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Scott Fitzgerald. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $6K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Scott Fitzgerald had raised $1.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Andrew Beck had raised $15KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›