U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 6th District
Glenn S. Grothman win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Grothman by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Glenn S. Grothman
Raised $929K · $830K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bradley Smith
Raised $166K · $60K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Glenn S. Grothman. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $221K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Bradley Smith had raised $166KFEC filing
- Jul 22Glenn S. Grothman had raised $929KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.6 and R+6.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›