U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Wisconsin's 7th District
Paul Wassgren win chance
99%
Typical margin: Wassgren by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Paul Wassgren
Raised $3.4M · $0 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Frederic Clark
Raised $423K · $174K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Paul Wassgren. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.5M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Frederic Clark had raised $423KFEC filing
- Jun 30Paul Wassgren had raised $3.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.9 and R+4.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›