U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Alabama Senate
Felix Barry Moore win chance
97%
Typical margin: Moore by 18.5
Republican
Everett Wess 3%Felix Barry Moore 97%
Who's running
Felix Barry MooreRepublican
Everett WessDemocrat
The numbers behind it
Cook Political ReportAs of Sep 23, 2026Solid R
Inside ElectionsAs of Oct 1, 2026Solid Republican
Money raisedFEC, through Jun 30, 2026Moore $3.8M
Since our last updateOct 8, 2026 → Oct 9, 20263% → 3%
Campaign money
Felix Barry Moore
Raised $3.8M · $628K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Felix Barry Moore had raised $3.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+34.5 and R+2.6.
The polling average we use has it at R+19.0.
Our method ›