U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Arkansas Senate
Thomas Cotton win chance
91%
Typical margin: Cotton by 10
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Thomas Cotton
Raised $13.6M · $9.9M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Hallie Shoffner
Raised $2.3M · $864K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Thomas Cotton. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Hallie Shoffner had raised $2.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Thomas Cotton had raised $13.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+22.1 and D+2.4.
The polling average we use has it at R+8.3.
Our method ›