U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Colorado Senate
John W. Hickenlooper win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Hickenlooper by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
John W. Hickenlooper
Raised $10.3M · $2.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bob Chew
Raised $1.3M · $1.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Robert Chew
Raised $1.3M · $1.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Janak Joshi
Raised $486K · $0 cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to John W. Hickenlooper. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.3M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid DemocratInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 17Janak Joshi had raised $486KFEC filing
- Jun 30Robert Chew had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Bob Chew had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30John W. Hickenlooper had raised $10.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.1 and D+39.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›