U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Florida Senate
Ashley Moody win chance
97%
Typical margin: Moody by 10
Republican
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Moody +6.6 in the pollsMoody's chance with the polls as they are
97%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ashley Moody
Raised $11.3M · $8.5M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Angie Nixon
Raised $975K · $265K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Ashley Moody. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Florida
Median age42.7
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)35.8%
Lives in urban areas91.5%
White, non-Hispanic49.1%
Hispanic28.7%
Black14.3%
Asian3.0%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RInside Elections
- Sep 24Ashley Moody +6.6 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 24 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jul 29Angie Nixon had raised $975KFEC filing
- Jul 29Ashley Moody had raised $11.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+19.4 and R+1.0.
Our method ›