U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff win chance
90%
Typical margin: Ossoff by 9
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Ossoff +7.5 in the pollsOssoff's chance with the polls as they are
90%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jon Ossoff
Raised $77.3M · $42.6M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mike Collins
Raised $7.4M · $2.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Jon Ossoff. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Georgia
Median age38.0
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)36.3%
Lives in urban areas74.1%
White, non-Hispanic48.0%
Hispanic11.6%
Black30.3%
Asian4.9%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Lean DInside Elections
- Sep 23Jon Ossoff +7.5 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 23 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jun 30Mike Collins had raised $7.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Jon Ossoff had raised $77.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+2.6 and D+20.8.
Our method ›