U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Idaho Senate
James E Risch win chance
95%
Typical margin: Risch by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
James E Risch
Raised $4.4M · $3.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Todd Baker Achilles
Raised $692K · $194K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
David Jordan Roth
Raised $15K · $278.5 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to James E Risch. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30David Jordan Roth had raised $15KFEC filing
- Jun 30Todd Baker Achilles had raised $692KFEC filing
- Jun 30James E Risch had raised $4.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+32.5 and R+0.6.
The polling average we use has it at R+16.1.
Our method ›